RightChange: Playing Defense With Iran

President Obama has often been described as “leading from behind” when it comes to foreign policy.  We don’t even think he deserves credit for leading at all, especially when it comes to Iran.  When George W. Bush left office, he left the world with a message: mess with freedom…or else.  Obama thought he could stop Iran from working towards “blowing Israel off the face of the earth” by apologizing for that very message.  It’s not working; and everybody knows it.  Now he is faced with a similar situation as his predecessor.

As the Wall Street Journal asks, what will it take for Obama and the U.S. Intelligence community to believe Tehran’s nuclear intentions isn’t exactly peaceful?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its latest report on Iran this past Friday.  Come to find out, Iran’s civilian nuclear program just got a whole lot more dangerous. Iran’s regime has sharply increased its production of 20%-enriched uranium and in much more quantities than it needs for “civilian use.”  More than a third of the new enrichment is taking place at the Fordow installation, which is guarded inside a bunker carved into a mountain.

This 20% uranium stockpile makes it that much easier for them to fuel a bomb.  They also told IAEA inspectors they were not allowed to visit their facility.  The assessment of James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence, says that Iran has yet to assemble these components into a bomb.  Some U.S. intelligence has even gathered that Iran shelved its nuclear work in 2003.

The Wall Street Journal reports that there is a problem with this assessment:

Mr. Clapper and friends are drawing a narrow distinction between having the ability to build a nuke and actually building one. In this ever-hopeful analysis, Iran might decide that it is better served possessing enough nuclear capability to keep its options open and its enemies on guard, without having to incur the risks of building and maintaining an actual arsenal. The model here is Japan, another country that could easily build nuclear weapons but chooses not to out of strategic, moral and political considerations.

There's a problem with this logic: Japan is not Iran. Democratic Tokyo threatens nobody. Theocratic Tehran never ceases making threats. The idea that Japan could, in theory, field a nuclear arsenal might serve as a deterrent against Chinese military planners, but it doesn't keep ordinary people in Seoul, Taipei or Manila awake at night.

By contrast, if the mullahs can readily acquire nuclear weapons, they will instantly change calculations in the Middle East and beyond. That event would broaden Iran's strategic and tactical options while complicating those for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Gulf states and the U.S.”

It basically comes down to hanging out allies out to dry to pacify our enemies.  As the WSJ notes, we are already doing that with Israel.  Obama is begging them not to defend themselves against Iran before the U.S. presidential elections.  The most memorable example was when he asked them to go back to their 1967 borders. 

This type of pacification is detrimental if Iran isn’t living up to the U.S. Intelligence assessment.  Iran has refused to cooperate with the U.S. and the international community for years now.  They pick and choose when they will allow inspectors to see their facility, and they have openly stated their intentions to blow Israel off the face of the earth.

The WSJ also ponders why officials are reluctant to call Iran out on its bad behavior.  They provide the explanation that part of it could be the WMD debacle in Iraq.  Obama doesn’t want to be blamed for anything, especially during an election year.  Perhaps that is what sets this administration apart from the Bush administration.  President Bush was faced with a slew of alarming intelligence.  Instead of trusting a dictator, he aired on the side of caution. 

President Obama is faced with the same type of situation: to let Iran develop weapons of mass destruction, or not?  So far, he has just hoped for the best.

Back To Blog