Right Change: What Does Wisconsin Recall Mean for General Election?

Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker faces a recall of his 2010 election this Tuesday and it could have an impact on more than just business and politics in the cheese state. Walker immediately got to work after he defeated Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by pushing through tough legislation designed to get the state on solid fiscal ground. Democrats saw the law as a way for Walker to reduce the political power of his opposition. 

The two parties also differ on the impact this recall will have on the General Election in November. Of course, it all depends on who wins as to how much impact each side will claim or concede. A victory for Walker could mean the battleground state of Wisconsin might be in play for Romney later this year. A victory for Barrett might mean the state remains solidly Democrat and Romney shouldn’t waste his time campaigning there. The state has historically been true to Democrats in the past, but recently has shown signs of balancing out. George W. Bush lost Wisconsin by less than a percentage point in 2000 and 2004 and the voters did remove a veteran Democrat by electing Walker the first time in 2010. 

Romney supporters have already reported the state is on the former Governor’s “watch list” and that it could become a place where he campaigns aggressively if Walker were to survive the recall. A loss for Walker means the GOP probably focuses elsewhere in the Midwest. President Obama has stayed away from the state personally, but his campaign has publicly donated over a million dollars to the Barrett cause. Does his lack of a physical presence in the state signal he is taking lightly its impact come November and will this backfire in his effort to earn the state’s 10 delegates?

Two recent polls show Walker with a slight edge going into the recall vote, but they also reveal the outcome may come down to voter turnout. Recent numbers show 92% of Republican voters have said they are “absolutely certain to vote” Tuesday while only 77% of Democrats claim the same. Both sides have massive plans underway to get voters to the polls, efforts that have only magnified the large amount of money being spent on this recall. Most is coming from the two parties, but some is going to be footed by the Wisconsin taxpayers – approximately $9 million to be clear. 

Will this be money well spent? That depends on which side you are on and who wins. Whether or not the state of Wisconsin can actually afford to hold this recall vote, the Democrats and the Labor Unions see this as a “stake-in-the-ground” moment if they want to hang on the political power they’ve both enjoyed for the past 100 years. Republicans label the entire ordeal as wasteful while they pour millions into the Walker campaign, hoping for a sign this battleground state is turning to the GOP. What real impact Tuesday’s decision has won’t be felt for five months. Clearly both sides are counting on it to be a substantial impact.

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