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Right Change: Obama Approval Below 50% in 37 States

Fri, August 03, 2012

Gallup Politics spent the first six months of 2012 asking more than 90,000 American adults whether they approve or disapprove of the work Obama is doing as president. 

Across the entire nation, the numbers were split for the months January through June. At least 500 residents in 41 states and at least 1,000 in 32 states were questioned for this poll. Overall, Obama was found to be doing well in those states with a lot of electoral votes, a factor key to his re-election bid. But in 16 states, including several important battleground states, the incumbent carries a less than 40% approval rating.

The 50% approval rating mark is critical in a president’s ability to keep his residency at the White House. According to Gallup, it has historically been a tipping point on whether an incumbent coasts to victory or finds himself in a dogfight.

The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election -- George W. Bush and Harry Truman -- won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.

While it is possible the minds of U.S. voters could change in the months between now and November, Gallup says approval ratings do not typically change much in the months leading up to elections.

Based on historical record, it is unlikely that Obama's approval rating will improve dramatically over the next three months. The biggest improvement any recent president had between the 14th and 15th quarter was slightly more than two percentage points for George W. Bush. In that case, the increase was enough to move Bush's average to the 50% mark. Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan also gained in quarter 15 but were already above 50%. Carter and the elder Bush both saw decreases in approval at a time when they needed to show dramatic improvement in their public support to win re-election.

The president holds a majority approval rating in three of the union’s most heavily populated states, California, Illinois and New York. Consequently, these three are among the richest in electoral votes as well. The combined number of electoral votes in those states where Obama has at least a 50% approval rating totals 185. The 16 states where Obama falls below 40% are generally smaller in size and between them only total 93 electoral votes. 21 states remain in that area with an Obama approval rating between 40 – 50%, including battleground states Florida (46%), Pennsylvania (46%), Ohio (44%) and Colorado (43%). North Carolina, the site of the DNC’s convention this summer carries a 46% rating while Virginia, a state Obama targets in campaigning today, holds a 46% number.

Rasmussen Reports agrees on the importance of an incumbent president’s approval rating and their daily Presidential Tracking poll from Wednesday showed Mitt Romney with a 47%-44% lead. Scott Rasmussen says the way Americans view the current economy is the reason for Obama’s low numbers and he needs to improve his approval ratings in order to get another four years.

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of re-election. Typically, the president’s rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of thePresident's job performance. 52% at least somewhat disapprove.

The President would still need to earn 90 more electoral votes than the ones he would currently get from the 13 above-majority approval rating states. Polling shows he is not doing well in the critical swing states holding many of those 90 votes. Can Obama change the minds of independent voters in these key states? The numbers show the election will be decided by how many of these people think he will do a better job the next time around.

#1. Posted by Robin H on August 04, 2012

How’s he doing in the other 20 states?  smile

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