Right Change: Campaign Spending Centers on Battleground States

The terms “battleground” or “swing” states are mentioned just about every time someone speaks about the potential outcome of this presidential election. Just how many or which states actual qualify as a battleground or swing state is up for some debate, that is until now. AP released a report detailing the enormous amount of campaign spending in nine states, which have combined for over $350 million spent on ads to date.

Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida appear to be at the center of the campaigns of both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. These nine states qualify for 120 of the 270 electoral votes necessary for victory and both parties are focusing time and money here. In 2008, Obama carried all nine, but the experts argue they are in play this time around.

The Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks campaign advertising, says things are different now than just one or two presidential campaigns ago.

“Voters in just 67 of the country's 210 media markets are confronted by campaign ads on local stations,” said Kantar/CMAG's Elizabeth Wilner said. “People are seeing more spots in fewer states than they were four or eight years ago — more advertisers, and a lot more money is being squeezed into a smaller number of markets, It's been quite static all these months (and will be) hard to imagine we're going to look at a vastly different picture than we're seeing right now."

Both campaigns have spent a remarkable $2.5 million in eastern North Carolina alone. This part of the key battleground state was the eighth-ranked market in the country for presidential ads. "You'd think they'd have some big city they were spending all this money, not little North Carolina!" says Craven County, North Carolina voter Kitty Frazier. Frazier laments the negative tone of the vast majority of the campaign ads. “They’re very detrimental,” Frazier says. “I think if they want to talk about the issues, it would be nice, but they don’t. It’s argumentative and it turns you right off.” The Washington Post tracks the ads, their overall tone, their intended message and who paid for the spot. The numbers say 74% of the ads are negative and over half of them are focusing on jobs and the economy.

The numbers also reveal the top spenders are, of course, Obama (1st) and Romney (2nd), but also three pro-Romney organizations, American Crossroads (3rd), Restore Our Future (4th) and Americans for Prosperity (5th). A pro-Obama group, Priorities USA Action, the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee are 6th-8th respectively.

Kantar/CMAG’s Wilner says what happens after the conventions will be the most telling sign of which states are really up for grabs. "If Romney begins to gain momentum, Michigan and Wisconsin may become competitive and North Carolina might be less of a draw for the President," Wilner said. "If the momentum is with Obama, we might see him advertise in Arizona. Both sides will stay off the air in Michigan, remain on the air in North Carolina, and do only low level advertising in Pennsylvania."

With President Obama carrying all nine of these states in his defeat of John McCain back in 2008, one would think any movement Romney can make in any of these states would be big. With the polls showing both candidates within a percentage point or two of each other, one or two states swinging the other way could mean the difference between victory and defeat. Clearly, both sides are keenly aware of this. The question is, will all of this advertising money make a difference?

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